Cook Political Report Shifts New Hampshire Senate Race to Toss Up

The Cook Political Report has reclassified the New Hampshire Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, signaling a significant tightening in a contest that could determine control of the U.S. Senate. The change, announced on September 15, 2026, reflects a closer-than-expected matchup between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former Senator John E. Sununu. The rating shift comes after both candidates secured their party nominations on September 8. Sununu, a member of a prominent New Hampshire political family, is seeking a return to the Senate, while Pappas aims to become the first openly gay man elected to the chamber. The seat is open because Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report's Senate and governors editor, noted that public and private polls show Sununu running closer to Pappas than many anticipated. A late-August University of New Hampshire poll found Sununu at 45% and Pappas at 43%, a difference within the margin of error. Taylor wrote that voters in the state are accustomed to splitting their tickets, often favoring Republicans for governor while supporting Democrats in federal races.