CLARITY Act passage odds drop to 50 percent on Senate delays

The likelihood of the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at establishing a federal framework for digital assets, passing before 2027 has dropped sharply on prediction markets, falling from nearly 75 percent last week to around 50 percent. The decline reflects growing uncertainty over the Senate’s crowded legislative calendar and internal disagreements among lawmakers, raising questions about whether the bill can advance before the August recess.

The bill, which was approved by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by a vote of 15 to 9, now faces a narrow window for a floor vote. According to the official Senate schedule, the chamber will be in session for only four working weeks in June and three weeks in July before breaking for the summer on August 10. Analysts from Galaxy Digital and NYDIG have identified this nine-week period as the most realistic opportunity for passage this year.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has told Republican lawmakers that the chamber will not be in session through June to finish a budget reconciliation bill, leaving that measure unfinished. The delay is attributed to disagreements over a funding provision for the Department of Justice. As a result, the...