Carney’s Nobel odds rise, then fall on prediction market

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney briefly reached the top of a prediction market for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Kalshi trading implying a 14% chance he would win, before his odds fell. The market movement has drawn attention amid Carney’s public opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies, but it offers no indication of how the Nobel committee will decide. The 2026 prize is scheduled to be announced on October 9 in Oslo. The Norwegian Nobel Committee does not publish a shortlist of finalists, and there is no public evidence that Carney is on one. Kalshi prices reflect traders’ positions and can change quickly; they are not estimates supplied by the committee. Later market snapshots put Carney’s implied chance lower, including at 5% on Monday evening. Carney’s rising profile has been linked to his argument that middle powers should cooperate to protect their sovereignty as more powerful countries use economic and military leverage. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, he said the old international order was not coming back and urged countries such as Canada to work together rather than wait for its restoration. His remarks received a standing ovation.