Caribbean tropical wave could become next named storm Melissa

The National Hurricane Center said Monday that a tropical wave moving west across the tropical Atlantic is likely to enter the Caribbean Sea this week and has a growing chance of becoming the season's next named storm, potentially called Melissa. The system is expected to reach the Windward Islands late this weekend or early next week and could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of the southeastern Caribbean before slowing in the central Caribbean, forecasters said.

As of the NHC's latest outlook, the disturbance has roughly a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours and about an 80 percent chance within seven days. The wave is moving generally westward at 15 to 25 miles per hour with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms but currently lacks a closed circulation, which forecasters say should limit organization until motion slows. The agency also continued to monitor a separate non tropical low well off the Northeast U.S. coast with a low chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics.

Forecasters and computer model ensembles are in broad agreement that the system will at least deliver heavy rainfall to the...