BLS February CPI Forecast: 0.3% Monthly Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its February Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday, March 11, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with economists forecasting a modest 0.3 percent increase from January and a 2.4 percent rise over the past year. These figures, which align closely with January's readings, capture price trends before the outbreak of the Iran War at the end of the month, meaning the recent surge in oil prices will not yet appear in the data.

The anticipated monthly uptick reflects a balance of cooling pressures in several key areas offset by persistent rises elsewhere. Declining prices for used vehicles and groceries are expected to continue trends from January, when lower energy costs and softer vehicle prices contributed to cooler-than-expected inflation. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, is projected to rise between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent month over month and 2.5 percent year over year. Housing costs, including rents and owners' equivalent rent, are also seen moderating, potentially easing overall inflation.

Analysts attribute some of these disinflationary forces to seasonal factors and market dynamics. Josh...