Bitcoin Opens October With Uptober Hopes, Signals Mixed

Bitcoin entered October after closing September with a rare monthly gain, a performance that has revived seasonal bulls’ hopes that the asset may extend its rally into the fourth quarter. Trading near 113,000 on the final day of September, Bitcoin’s positive close follows a month of heightened volatility and sets the stage for a period historically known among traders as Uptober, when the asset has often posted its strongest returns.

Seasonal patterns are a central part of the bullish case. Over the past decade, October has tended to deliver outsized returns for Bitcoin, with many past years showing gains concentrated in the second half of the month. When September has finished in the green in prior years, the final quarter has in some cases produced steep rallies, leading some analysts to project substantial upside later in the year. One Bitcoin network economist said, "This year, it is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions," while cautioning that past performance is not a guarantee.

Onchain indicators provide mixed but notable signals. A 90‑day measure of taker buy pressure recently flipped positive, and U.S. spot markets showed...