Bitcoin eyes strong November amid policy and trade uncertainty

Bitcoin has entered November, historically its strongest month, with average gains of 42.51 percent since 2013, a run that some analysts say could push the cryptocurrency above $160,000 if past patterns repeat. But market watchers caution that seasonal strength is only one variable amid a mix of macroeconomic and political developments that could either amplify or undercut gains in the weeks ahead.

"Seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors," said Markus Thielen, a crypto analyst at 10x Research. His remarks underline the debate among investors over whether historical November performance can overcome recent weakness: Bitcoin closed October down 3.69 percent, its first October decline in seven years.

Key forces cited by analysts include U.S. monetary policy, U.S.-China trade relations and domestic political uncertainty in Washington. Traders are pricing in a roughly 63 percent chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting on December 10, 2025, according to CME FedWatch. Fed officials recently approved a quarter-point reduction in the key lending rate, and the central bank halted its quantitative tightening program on December...