Bernstein: Bitcoin Hits Cycle Low, $150K Target by 2026

Research firm Bernstein announced on March 24 that Bitcoin has likely reached its cycle low following a significant price decline, reaffirming its price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026. The cryptocurrency, trading around $70,000 at the time, has fallen approximately 45 percent from its October 2025 peak above $126,000, amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility.

Analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, described the recent drawdown as the weakest bear market in Bitcoin's history, attributing it primarily to a temporary crisis in investor confidence rather than any fundamental weaknesses. Unlike previous downturns marked by exchange failures, lender insolvencies, and widespread contagion, such as the 2022 collapse of FTX, the current correction lacked systemic breakdowns. Instead, it stemmed from leveraged trader liquidations, profit-taking by long-term holders, and external pressures including U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran in late February and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

This assessment aligns with broader market indicators suggesting capitulation has occurred. Implied volatility metrics, including DVOL and BVIV, spiked above 90...