Australia forecasts deaths to outnumber births by 2060s

Australia's Treasury has forecast that deaths will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s, marking a significant demographic shift for the nation. The projection is contained in the government's 2026 Intergenerational Report, which outlines long-term economic and social challenges over the next four decades. The report, released on Monday, September 21, 2026, by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, indicates that Australia's population will age more rapidly and grow more slowly than previously expected. It projects average annual population growth of 0.9% over the next 40 years, a decline from the 1.4% average of the past four decades. The nation's total population is forecast to reach 39.3 million by 2065-66, which is 1.8 million lower than the projection made in the 2023 report. A key driver of this change is a continued fall in the fertility rate, which is expected to drop to a record low of 1.34 by 2066. This is significantly lower than the 1.62 births per woman forecast just three years ago. The report states that by the 2060s, natural increase will no longer be a driver of population growth, and immigration will become the sole source of population expansion.