Asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit the Moon in 2032, debris risk to spacecraft

Researchers say asteroid 2024 YR4 has about a 4 percent chance of striking the moon in December 2032, a prospect that could send a surge of lunar debris into near-Earth space and pose hazards to satellites and crewed spacecraft. The asteroid was first detected in late December 2024, and follow-up observations, including measurements by the James Webb Space Telescope in March 2025, put its diameter at about 60 meters. Earlier concerns that the object might hit Earth in 2032 have been ruled out.

Scientists warn that a lunar impact by an object of this size would not change the moon's orbit but could eject material that briefly increases micrometeoroid flux in low Earth orbit by orders of magnitude, potentially up to 1,000 times background levels over a few days. That surge in debris could endanger satellites, the International Space Station, and astronauts during extravehicular activities, according to a preprint paper by a group of researchers published in September.

The paper examines mission options that could be mounted if the lunar impact trajectory is confirmed. Those options include reconnaissance flybys or rendezvous to better characterize the asteroid, kinetic impactor...