ARK-Unchained Report: 34.6% Bitcoin Supply at Quantum Risk

A joint whitepaper released this week by ARK Invest and Unchained Capital assesses Bitcoin's exposure to potential quantum computing threats, concluding that roughly one-third of the cryptocurrency's total supply faces long-term risks, while the majority remains secure under current conditions.

The report, authored by Dhruv Bansal, Tom Honzik, and David Puell, estimates that 34.6 percent of Bitcoin's supply, or about 6.9 million BTC valued at approximately $483 billion at a median price of $70,000, could become vulnerable if quantum computers advance to break the network's elliptic curve cryptography. This system, known as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm over the secp256k1 curve, underpins Bitcoin's security for ownership and transactions. Quantum machines running Shor's algorithm could derive private keys from public keys, potentially allowing attackers to seize funds from exposed addresses.

However, the analysis highlights that 65.4 percent of the supply is already in formats considered relatively safe from such risks. The vulnerable portion breaks down into specific categories based on address types and usage patterns. Around 5 million BTC, representing about...