Anthropic Model Sees U.S. GDP at $44 Trillion by 2030

Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said an internal company model forecasts that U.S. economic output could reach about $44 trillion by 2030, up from just over $30 trillion, if artificial intelligence continues to improve. He described the projection as outlandish and tied it to the potential for AI to accelerate economic and scientific change. Clark discussed the forecast at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bangkok, which run from October 12 to 18. The figure is a model projection, not an observed result. The available account does not detail the assumptions or probabilities behind the forecast. One account of the model describes three scenarios: a modest case projecting output of $34.1 trillion by 2030, a substantial case of $36.3 trillion and an extreme case of $44.4 trillion. Clark’s public summary cited the approximately $44 trillion outcome. The scenario figures were reported without accompanying methodological details in the material available. Clark argued that reaching such a level of growth would require new industries and inventions, and said AI was already accelerating scientific discovery. He suggested that continued advances...