ACDC Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets for Possible Insider Bets on Military Secrets

A new analysis by a nonprofit research group has identified over 150 anonymous wallets on the prediction market platform Polymarket that may have used nonpublic U.S. military information to place highly successful bets, raising significant national security and regulatory concerns. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, or ACDC, reported that these accounts, dubbed "Orcas," collectively earned approximately $8 million in profits on military and defense-related events with an average win rate of 97.2 percent.

ACDC reviewed all settled Polymarket markets through May 5, focusing on what it defined as "longshot" wagers. These were bets totaling at least $2,500 placed within an hour on outcomes with odds of 35 percent or lower. The study identified 556 wallets fitting this suspicious profile, characterized by accounts that open, place a few highly successful wagers on niche, low-probability events, and often cash out and disappear. Among these, 152 wallets specialized in military and defense markets.

Researchers emphasized that the trading patterns do not conclusively prove insider trading or identify the individuals involved, as luck or other legitimate sources of information could be...