1960 population model's doomsday date was an extrapolation

A population model published in 1960 projected that continued hyperbolic growth would drive the world’s population toward infinity on November 13, 2026, but the date was a mathematical extrapolation, not a prediction of a specific disaster. The model’s projections began diverging from population trends around 1993, according to accounts of the study, and its assumptions no longer describe the growth pattern reported in recent decades. The paper, published in the journal Science under the title “Doomsday Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” was written by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot. The researchers used historical population estimates to extend a pattern of increasingly rapid growth into the future. Their calculation produced a theoretical singularity on November 13, 2026, when the model’s population curve would approach infinity. The striking date and title helped draw public attention to the paper. Its underlying argument was that human populations might grow faster than an exponential rate, rather than being limited to steady or ordinary exponential growth.